Is a Recession on the horizon?

April 16, 2025

Hey friends, the April 14th episode of On with Kara Swisher got me thinking about the possibility that we’re headed for recession. Her guests didn't mince words: if we keep heading down the path of trade wars, Fed fights, and zero fiscal discipline, we're likely in for a recession later this year. One even said it comes down to the decisions of one person -- and we all know who that is.

Economists and banks are sounding the alarm. Goldman Sachs just raised the odds of a recession to 45%. JPMorgan predicts a downturn in the second half of 2025. Ray Dalio warns it could be worse than a recession. The Conference Board's index is falling, and market volatility is back in the spotlight.

A recession is basically the economy slamming the brakes. Spending drops, businesses earn less, people lose jobs or hours -- and it spirals. Everyone pulls back and waits it out. It's all connected, and it all slows down.

So what can we do? Trim non-essential spending. Build up a bit of savings if possible. Hold off on taking on new debt. If you've got a job, try to keep it even if it's not perfect.